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Edito : L’I.A. (Intelligence Artificielle) pourrait faire disparaître 140 millions d’emplois qualifiés à l’horizon 2025…

Jeudi, 12/06/2014 - 23:00 69 commentaires
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Depuis l’invention, il y plus de trois siècles et demi, de la machine à calculer mécanique par Blaise Pascal, en 1648 (la machine arithmétique), l’homme a toujours rêvé d’une machine qui ne serait pas seulement capable de calculer plus vite que le cerveau humain mais qui parviendrait également à raisonner de manière « intelligente », c’est-à-dire à trouver, comme l’homme, des solutions inédites face à des problèmes nouveaux.

Pendant très longtemps, ce rêve resta du domaine de la spéculation et fit les beaux jours de  la science-fiction et tous les cinéphiles se souviennent du chef d’œuvre de Stanley Kubrick : « 2001 : Odyssée de l’espace » (sorti en 1968) dans lequel HAL, l’ordinateur contrôlant le vaisseau spatial d’exploration,  se mettait à éprouver des émotions humaines et à adopter un étrange comportement…

En 1950, alors que les premiers ordinateurs sortaient à peine des laboratoires, le génial scientifique anglais Alan Turing imagina, dans la revue Computing machinery and intelligence, un fameux test consistant à confronter un ordinateur et un humain, sans que ce dernier sache s’il avait affaire à une machine ou à un autre être humain. L’idée lumineuse de ce test était que le jour où l’homme ne serait plus capable de savoir, dans une conversation en temps réel non préparée, si son interlocuteur était une machine ou un humain, les ordinateurs pourraient alors être qualifiés « d’intelligents ».  

Il fallut toutefois attendre presque un demi-siècle pour qu’en 1997, après 6 parties, le champion d'échec Garry Kasparov soit battu pour la première fois dans l’histoire de ce jeu, par l'ordinateur Deep Blue conçu par IBM. Cette date marqua une grande avancée dans le domaine de l’intelligence artificielle car le jeu d’échec était considéré depuis des siècles par les scientifiques comme faisant appel à des qualités dépassant largement le simple « calcul » et mobilisant toutes les formes de l’intelligence humaine, ruse, imagination, stratégie notamment.

Après ce coût d’éclat de l’IA, certains scientifiques affirmèrent que l’ordinateur pouvait, certes, battre tous les joueurs humains aux échecs mais qu’il ne parviendrait jamais à battre l’homme au jeu de Go, un jeu d’une extrême subtilité, dans lequel non seulement  la valeur d'une pièce donnée n'est pas fixée à l'avance mais qui présente également un nombre astronomique de combinaisons possibles et dépassera toujours la puissance pure de calcul des superordinateurs.

Mais en moins de 10 ans, l’utilisation de nouveaux programmes informatiques, issus de la physique statistique, ont permis à l’ordinateur de se hisser du rang de joueur médiocre à celui de très bon joueur et aujourd’hui, personne ne parierait que les joueurs humains seront encore les meilleurs au go dans dix ans…

Une autre étape symbolique a été franchie il y a quelques semaines, quand Deep Knowledge Venture, une société de gestion qui gère des fonds à hauts risques relatifs aux biotechnologies et les médicaments contre les maladies liées au vieillissement, a pris la décision surprenante de nommer VITAL, un algorithme, membre de son conseil d’administration (Voir Globe Newswire).

Ce programme informatique d’intelligence artificielle, développé par Aging Analytics a été conçu pour croiser une multitude de données et les analyser de manière à en extraire des informations susceptibles de prévoir les potentialités de développement des entreprises.

Ce domaine éminemment stratégique de l’intelligence artificielle est en train d’arriver à maturité et fait à présent l’objet d’une compétition féroce entre les géants de l’informatique et du numérique. IBM vient ainsi de présenter à une centaine de dirigeants d’entreprises suisses il y a quelques jours une nouvelle version de son ordinateur « intelligent » Watson, spécialement conçue pour l’analyse économique, financière et commerciale des marchés.

On se rappelle que Watson avait réussi l’exploit de battre, en 2011, les meilleurs joueurs américains au jeu « Jeopardy ». Cette machine avait, en effet, réussi au cours d’une finale télévisée mémorable à répondre de manière pertinente à toute une série de questions ambiguës et complexes.

Watson est qualifié de « supercalculateur cognitif », par IBM et ce système de nouvelle génération n’a pas son pareil pour exploiter de gigantesques bases de données et raisonner par inférence, ce qui lui permet notamment de comprendre remarquablement des subtilités et ambiguïtés du langage humain. Sur le plan électronique et matériel, cette nouvelle version de Watson a également été considérablement améliorée puisque la taille des serveurs nécessaires à son fonctionnement est passée en trois ans de celle d’un réfrigérateur à celle d’une boîte à chaussures…

Si Watson ne s’est pas encore véritablement implanté en Europe il a déjà su se rendre indispensable dans de multiples domaines d’activité aux États-Unis. Dans le secteur bancaire par exemple, la banque Citigroup utilise à présent Watson pour prescrire à ses clients le meilleur « paquet » de produits financiers personnalisés et parfaitement adaptés à leur situation. Watson peut ainsi prévoir l’évolution des besoins financiers d’un jeune ménage, de manière à lui proposer les meilleures solutions de placement et d’épargne en prévision de l’entrée à l’université de leurs enfants, 20 ans plus tard !

Mais Watson risque également de se substituer d’ici quelques années aux innombrables centres d’appels et plates-formes téléphoniques destinés à vendre de nouveaux produits et services ou à assurer le dépannage et le service après-vente des produits technologiques toujours plus nombreux que nous utilisons dans notre vie quotidienne.

Par exemple, le site Internet de la société « The North Face » spécialisée dans la vente de matériel de sports de montagne, a recours aux services de Watson qui est capable de répondre rapidement et efficacement aux interrogations en langage naturel les plus pointus, du genre « de quel matériel ai-je besoin pour une randonnée d’une semaine dans le sud saharien au mois de décembre ? ».

De nombreuses entreprises américaines de services commencent également à utiliser Watson pour répondre aux demandes très précises de leurs clients lorsque ceux-ci sont confrontés à un problème particulier avec leurs appareils et terminaux numériques.

Mais c’est très probablement dans le secteur médical et sanitaire que les ordinateurs « intelligents », comme Watson, vont entraîner à court terme une révolution d’une ampleur au moins comparable à celle de la vaccination, des antibiotiques ou de l’imagerie médicale par résonance magnétique nucléaire.

À l’époque de nos parents, les molécules thérapeutiques se comptaient encore par centaines mais à présent elles se comptent par dizaines de milliers et les combinaisons thérapeutiques qui en résultent deviennent proprement inimaginables et ingérables sans le recours à des systèmes d’intelligence artificielle et cela d’autant plus que ces associations médicamenteuses seront demain ajustées en fonction du profil génétique spécifique de chaque patient et modifiées en permanence en fonction des résultats obtenus et de la réponse des malades.

Cette « explosion combinatoire » touche particulièrement la cancérologie qui dispose pratiquement chaque mois de nouveaux médicaments et doit apprendre à utiliser ceux-ci de la manière la plus efficace possible. IBM a bien compris l’importance de cet enjeu médical et économique et s’est associé depuis plusieurs mois avec le prestigieux centre anticancéreux Memorial Sloan Kettering de New York pour mettre la puissance de déduction de son superordinateurs Watson au service des malades en leur proposant, après examen et analyse d’une gigantesque quantité de données scientifiques et médicales, la meilleure stratégie thérapeutique possible pour combattre leur maladie.

Confronté à la marche forcée de son rival Google qui dépense des milliards de dollars pour acquérir à tour de bras les sociétés les plus prometteuses dans le domaine de l’intelligence artificielle, IBM vise également son avenir et peut-être sa survie en investissant massivement dans ce domaine à présent incontournable : à la fin de l’année, les effectifs du géant informatique travaillant sur l’IA auront été multipliés par six en un an…

On comprend mieux ce pari quand on sait que Watson pourrait, selon certains analystes financiers, générer à lui seul 10 milliards de dollars de chiffre d’affaires annuel d’ici 2018, soit presque la moitié du chiffre d’affaires total d’IBM en 2013.

L’intelligence artificielle est également en train de s’imposer très rapidement dans le domaine du recrutement et des ressources humaines et la société américaine Knack a conçu et développé des tests sous forme de jeu vidéo interactif qui permettent d’évaluer de manière redoutable les capacités d’adaptation et la polyvalence des recrues potentielles, qu’il s’agisse de simples vendeurs, de gestionnaire de stocks ou de responsables commerciaux.  

Enfin, il y a quelques jours , un programme informatique conçu en Russie et baptisé « Eugene Goostman » est parvenu pour la première fois à l’occasion d’une compétition organisée par l’université britannique de Reading, à tromper plusieurs expérimentateurs humains dans le cadre d’un test de Turing (Voir The Independent).

Dans cette épreuve, les participants humains formulaient, comme le prévoyait Turing, des questions à l’aide de l’ordinateur en ignorant si celles-ci étaient traitées par un autre être humain par une machine. À l’issue de ce test d’une durée de cinq minutes, un tiers des interlocuteurs étaient persuadés qu’ils avaient conversé avec un autre humain alors que c’était un ordinateur utilisant ce logiciel étonnant qui leur avait répondu. L’université de Reading a précisé, par la voix du professeur Kevin Warwick, que ce test de Turing était le premier à avoir été organisé sur la base d’un dialogue réellement libre, sans que les questions et sujets abordés aient été connus avant l'expérience.

Reste à présent à mesurer l’impact, sans doute considérable, que vont avoir d’ici quelques années ces irrésistibles montées en puissance de l’intelligence artificielle sur la croissance économique, l’emploi et plus largement sur le fonctionnement global de nos sociétés. Selon une étude récente du bureau américain de recherches économiques, la demande d'emplois qualifiés, après avoir fortement augmenté au cours du dernier quart du XXe siècle, diminue depuis une quinzaine d’années. Même si les économistes ne sont évidemment pas tous d’accord sur les raisons de ce phénomène, les auteurs de ce rapport sont persuadés que cette évolution est essentiellement liée à l’accélération des ruptures technologiques majeures, notamment dans le domaine de la robotique et des technologies numériques. Pour l’Institut McKinsey, la disparition d’emplois qualifiés pourrait atteindre jusqu’à 140 millions de postes au niveau mondial à l’horizon 2025 …

Parmi les nombreux secteurs qui risquent de connaître, en seulement quelques années, un bouleversement radical lié à cette évolution technologique, on trouve par exemple le secteur de l’assurance. Comme le souligne Georges-Edouard Dias, chargé d'enseignement à HEC : "Le métier de l'assureur, c'est d'estimer le risque, de lui donner un prix et de le mutualiser. Demain, grâce à l’intelligence artificielle qui pourra exploiter d’immenses gisements de données, le mode d’estimation actuelle deviendra obsolète car on saura mesurer directement un risque précis pour chaque individu".

Cet irrésistible et fulgurant triomphe de l’intelligence artificielle est d’autant plus ambigu et paradoxal qu’il va en même temps entraîner des gains considérables de productivité et d’efficacité économique, améliorer notre qualité de vie et provoquer une réduction massive et sans doute définitive du nombre d’emplois disponibles au niveau planétaire, y compris dans des domaines hautement qualifiés.

Dans son dernier et remarquable essai, intitulé « L’innovation destructrice », Luc Ferry, s’appuyant sur les travaux visionnaires de Schumpeter, révèle de manière saisissante la face cachée et obscure du processus d’innovation qui, de simple outil de développement économique, s’est transformé, sans que nous en soyons vraiment conscients, en finalité dans l’ensemble des pays développés. Luc Ferry montre également que l’innovation, de plus en plus rapide, ne se limite plus au domaine scientifique et technique mais touche également les sphères sociales, politiques culturelles et artistiques.

Il reste que chez l’homme, contrairement à la machine, les nombreuses formes d’intelligence sont inséparables de son imagination, de sa sensibilité et de sa dimension affective et corporelle. Cette singularité humaine peut être considérée comme une faiblesse, si on la compare au mode de fonctionnement d’un système informatique utilisant toutes les ressources de l’intelligence artificielle. Mais cette spécificité de l’intelligence humaine, non réductible au seul calcul, reste sans doute notre meilleur atout pour continuer à découvrir demain et à explorer, loin devant des machines les plus évoluées, de nouveaux chemins insoupçonnés de créativité et de découverte.

René TRÉGOUËT

Sénateur Honoraire

Fondateur du Groupe de Prospective du Sénat

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